Out of the US, macro data we had showed weekly initial claims dropping last week to their lowest level in more than 3-1/2 years, while December consumer confidence jumped to its highest level in six months. The index of leading economic indicators also came in at +.5%, higher than expected, but on the disappointing side, was the final revision to third-quarter GDP, which came in at +1.8%, down from an earlier estimate of +2%. The revision was attributable mostly to weaker than expected consumption growth, although this was partly offset by stronger inventory numbers. Fixed investment, net exports, and government spending were all essentially unchanged.

We think the markets held up well on Thursday considering that signals coming out of Europe could have derailed the advance. For one thing, there was some nervous rhetoric coming out of the European System Risk Board (ESRB), which is a policy watch-dog of sorts, who said that European govenments needed to get their rescue fund up and running and that the lack of confidence in Europe’s banks had made the risks facing the region more acute. “Overall conditions have worsened as a result of the intensification of negative interlinkages between sovereign risks and the uncertainty about the resilience of the financial system, and on account of deteriorating growth prospects,” the ESRB said in a statement. “Dependence on central banks has risen and signs are intensifying that stressed financial conditions are passing through to the real economy”. It went on to say that capital levels need to be increased, and urged leaders to finalize agreements agreed to earlier this month at a crisis summit taking place shortly in Brussels. “The swift and coordinated implementation of those decisions is now of utmost importance.”

Another development that could have impacted the markets negatively was an ECB press conference that was supposed to have been held by chief Mario Draghi, who unexpectedly did not turn up. Markets could have been rattled by this last-minute cancellation, but were not, as Mervyn King, the head of the Bank of England, stood in for him taking the usual question about the imminent demise of the Euro. In reply, King broke with the usual economic talking points and gave a more homespun explanation: “I remember as a student going to the centre of London and seeing on the main shopping street a man wearing a sandwich board and across it was written: ‘The end of the world is nigh’. The interesting thing was he was still there 20 years later.” Certainly, many in the Eurozone are hoping the current doomsayers will also be proven wrong, but unlike the man King was referring to, there are plenty of warning signs that the current crisis could indeed be the “real thing” if not handled right by the politicians.

In corporate news, both Bloomberg and Reuters are reporting that there have been losses incurred by Barclays Capital, forcing the departure of the head of metals trading at the company, as well as one other person. Barclays would not specify the size of the loss, other than to say they were not “big” and that there was no “abnormal” trading, meaning no foul play was suspected. Apparently, the metals desk was quite long copper and aluminum as well as a number of spreads going into the summer months and got stung by the subsequent price collapse. In addition, the Barclays research team had been bullish on metals, calling for the copper, for example, to hit $12,000 by the fourth quarter.

Out of the hedge fund world, Reuters reports that John Paulson’s Advantage Plus fund is posting another dismal performance for December thus far, showing a drop of 9% through the 16th of the month and bringing yearly losses to around 52%. Meanwhile, the Paulson Advantage fund saw a decline of about 6%, bringing losses to around 36% year-to-date. The average hedge fund was down about 4.37% through November, according to Hedge Fund Research.

On the US macro scene, we get November durable goods readings later today (expected at 2% on the overall rate and higher than the -.5% seen last month), November personal income and spending (expected up .2% and .3%, respectively) and new home sales for November (expected at 350,000). Out of Europe, Italian consumer confidence fell in December to its lowest since January 1996. Out of the UK, services activity, which account for about three quarters of the economy, fell by the greatest amount in six months in October, indicating a loss of momentum going into the fourth quarter.

Finally, there is a very good article in this month’s Vanity Fair on what is ailing the US economy and the parallels the author (Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz) sees between what is going on now and what happened during the Great Depression. Stiglitz’s ideas to get us out of the slump are certainly not in vogue given the current political situation, but he makes an interesting case based on the parallels he sees. The piece can be accessed

in this link.

We wish all our readers a very happy Christmas weekend and will resume coverage on the markets on Wednesday, December 28th, as the LME will be closed until then.
———————————-
COPPER SUPPORT: $7100 / RESISTANCE: $8015

We are now at $7635, up $95 in very thing trading.

* Freeport-McMoRan has signed a labor agreement with workers at its Peruvian Cerro Verde copper mine, three weeks after some 1,000 laborers returned to work and ended the two-month strike, the company said.

* Anglo American has sued Codelco for breach of contract in an attempt to void a disputed agreement that would grant the latter a stake in Anglo’s south Chilean assets in January. The dispute began in October when Codelco announced that it was planning to buy up to 49% of Anglo’s south Chilean assets, ahead of the January period when the option becomes available. Anglo then struck back by announcing it had sold a 24.5% stake in the assets to Japan’s Mitsubishi, reducing Codelco’s potential stake.
——————————–
ALUMINUM SUPPORT: $1950 / RESISTANCE: $2170

Ali is now at $2020, up $1, but failing to move off the $2000 mark in either direction.

* AMM reports that Midwest aluminum premiums have softened this week on the back of slow year-end demand and a persisting backwardation on the London Metal Exchange, although most suppliers tell the magazine that they remain optimistic premiums will bounce back in 2012. Premiums are said to be around 7.5c
——————————-
ZINC SUPPORT: $1820 / RESISTANCE: $2000

Zinc is at $1867, up $17 and has been very quiet so far this week.
———————————–
LEAD SUPPORT: $1900 / RESISTANCE: $2167

Lead is at $2013, up $13, and approaching key resistance around $2170.
—————————————
NICKEL SUPPORT: $17,300 / RESISTANCE: $18,900

Nickel is at $18,700, up $5.
——————————————
TIN SUPPORT: $18,350 / RESISTANCE: $21,749

Tin is at $19,400, up $175.
——————————————-
STEEL (3-Months)

LME 3-month billets are at $540-$550.

INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.

On the currency front, the Euro slipped to $1.3040 yesterday on growing doubts that the ECB’s easy-money program would do anything to ameliorate the more burdensome debt situation. In fact, one can make the case that the ECB and the markets are talking past each other–the markets are fixated on the ECB buying an infinite amount of Eurozone bonds as the only logical solution to the crisis, while the central bank is vehemently opposed going down that route. Instead, it is buying bonds in relatively modest amounts and on its own timetable, although it is far more willing to put out generous swap lines and loans in order to tide the banks over, such as the E498 billion it lent out this week. It also frequently takes European governments to task about getting their fiscal houses in order, leaving unclear how governments will manage their debt loads if they are not given some help by the ECB. All in all, the important point to be made here, is that the ECB policy measures are not the ones the markets seem to be demanding, so it remains to be seen how this standoff will eventually be resolved. As long as the two sides continue to butt heads, it will be very difficult to escape the erratic price behavior and uncertain tone that is now clearly evident in a number of markets.

Macro data out of the US yesterday showed that that existing home sales surged in November, increasing some 4% from October to an annual rate of 4.42 million units. More importantly, if the November sales pace were to continue at this pace, the 2.6 million unsold homes on the market will represent a 7.0 month supply of stock, the lowest since February 2007 and a sign that the backlog of inventory is finally lifting. However, the good news was offset in part by the fact that there were substantial revisions to data for the last four years, with home sales from 2007 to 2010 apparently overestimated by some 14.3%. Double-counting of properties and geographic population shifts was behind the erroneous figures.

Later today, we get weekly initial claim data, as well as our third estimate for third-quarter US GDP (expected at 2%, unchanged from the prior reading). Consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan also comes out (expected at 68, unchanged from the previous month), while later in the day, we get November leading economic indicators (expected at .3%). Out of Europe, Bloomberg reports that economic growth out of the UK accelerated more than previously estimated in the third quarter, up 0.6% from the previous period. Revisions show that growth was flat in the second quarter compared with a previous estimate of 0.1% growth.

Right now, markets are steadier, with metals generally mixed, while crude oil markets are up a tad. The Euro is a touch higher, now trading at $1.3070. US stocks are expected to open up in light of calm conditions in the European debt markets. In this regard, Italian 10-year bond yields were about 3 basis points lower at 6.79% on light ECB buying, while Spanish paper was yielding 5.36%, about 5 basis points higher on the day. The cost of insuring Hungary’s debt against default, however, jumped sharply after Standard & Poor’s cut the country’s rating to junk on Wednesday, following a similar move by Moody’s last month.

We do not expect much to happen for the balance of the week in most markets, as participants thin out and refrain from taking major positions ahead of the year and quarter end. If anything, a steadier tone should remain in place given the vigilance of the central banks guarding against any liquidity squeezes heading into year-end.

Finally, Chinese trade data, out Wednesday, is plotted in chart form at the end of our attachment.
———————————-
COPPER SUPPORT: $7100 / RESISTANCE: $8015

We are now at $7405, down $5, and well off an intraday high of $7573.

* The world refined copper market experienced deficit of 170,000 tons in the first nine months of the year, significantly smaller than the 429,000 ton deficit in the same period a year earlier, this according to latest numbers released by the International Copper Study Group.

* KGHM will sell up to 100,000 tpy of copper cathode to China’s Minmetals under the terms of a new five-year framework contract signed by the two companies and estimated to be worth between $1.83 billion and $3.65 billion, KGHM said.

* The industrial production index for fabricated metal products in the US hit its highest level in six months in November at 88.9, while the capacity utilization rate reached 80.1%, the highest level in three years, this according to the latest Federal Reserve Board report. In a related item, the For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index, used to track tonnage hauled by US trucks was up 0.3% in November on account of the evident surge in manufacturing and higher shipments of retail goods, the American Trucking Association (ATA) said yesterday.

* European copper premiums eased this week, with average premiums for copper in Rotterdam down to $55 per ton, from $58.13 per ton previously, this according to Metal Bulletin. However, premiums are said to span in the range of $35-75 per depending on the metal being offering and the willingness of some buyers to pay more for European origin material because it is Reach-registered.
——————————–
ALUMINUM SUPPORT: $1950 / RESISTANCE: $2170

Ali is now at $1990, down $4. The Feb-Mch backwardation that has been lingering for some time now has just about disappeared this week. On the stock font, Reuters reports that a queue for metal is building at the Dutch port of Vlissingen; of the roughly 900,000 tons of aluminum stored there, about 500,000 tons has been cancelled and is scheduled to be drawn out of warehouses.
————————
ZINC SUPPORT: $1820 / RESISTANCE: $2000

Zinc is at $1863, up $12 and has been very quiet so far this week.
———————————–
LEAD SUPPORT: $1900 / RESISTANCE: $2167

Lead is at $1973, up $7 and quiet.
—————————————
NICKEL SUPPORT: $17,300 / RESISTANCE: $18,900

Nickel is at $18,875, down $100 and still bumping against resistance levels evident around $18,900.

* The Pedro Soto Alba plant, a joint-venture between Cuban state monopoly Cubaniquel and Canadian mining company Sherritt, has reached its production target of nickel-plus-cobalt for the year and expects to hit a new record of over 37,700 tons by December 31, state media said.
——————————————
TIN SUPPORT: $18,350 / RESISTANCE: $21,749

Tin is at $19,188, down $12.
——————————————-
STEEL (3-Months)

LME 3-month billets are at $535-$550, unchanged on the day, but there is still evidence of a backwardation between cash to three’s.

* AK Steel has raised spot prices for all carbon flat-rolled steel products by $50 per ton ($2.50 per hundredweight) effective immediately with all new orders, the company said. This follows an announcement two weeks ago that the company would raise spot prices for hot-rolled sheet by $40 per ton and cold-rolled and coated products by $50 per ton.

INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.

METALS: Gold well off the highs ($1647) put in post LTRO ann’t as equities have weaken some, Feb back above the 200 day MA of $1621ish. Market ended yesterday with it’s 3rd day of higher lows and RSIs trending high at 38. China’s Shenzhen bank said they will start a Gold importing business after PBOC approval. Wires reproting that demand out of India has backed off with recent price movements, Gartman still on the “sidelines” for Gold, hesitant to get back in due to light holiday volumes. SLV holdings at their lowest levels since early Dec. Reuters reporting that China’s Nov copper imports were the 2ndd highest on record.

ENERGY: Oil moved to $98.50 post LTRO data but with outside markets back lower levels. API data yesterday a total Crude draw of 4.6 mil, with Cushing drawing 1.00 mil. Distillate also drew more then expected at 2.80 mil. DOEs at 10:30am. Oil workers returned to work at Kazakhstan oil fields under arm guards Japan reported that Nov Crude imports were down 8.9% from Nov of last year. China’s crude imports from Saudi Arabia was 1.17 mil bpd, the 2nd highest on record (not shocking since they stated that they began to fill some SPR starting in Sept). UN nuclear agency said they may revisit Iran and renew talks over nuclear program .America’s most senior military official General Martin Dempsey “has indicated that the country is ready to engage in a conflict with Iran if necessary”. Wires reporting that the N Korea’s missile test on Monday was “a warning, and they are unlikely to conduct a nuclear test unless provoked according to a source” and N Korea wants “wants the US to pull purported nuclear weapons out of South Korea and wants an armistice to replace 1953 ceasefire “.

In other markets, gold rose to its highest level in nearly a week yesterday, but significantly, did not retake the 200-day moving average of $1,621/ounce. The Euro was also stronger against the dollar, trading around $1.31 for most of the day, while oil markets were on fire, with both crude contracts tacking on more than $3/brl. US equities were the main stand-out however, as the Dow surged by 337 points, led by a sharp advance in the financials, a group that only the day before was withering on the vine. So much for market conviction, a variable that has been noticeably lacking in most other markets as well. Instead, what we are seeing, is a gradual but steady deterioration in most complexes, punctuated by sharp relief rallies that eventually peter out. Take, for example, the Dow’s 490-point jump on November 30th that set in after central banks coordinated moves to increase liquidity; that gain, along with other rallies spawned in its wake, pretty much evaporated by last week. Whether Tuesday’s move higher — should it continue– will fall victim to the same set of circumstances remains to be seen, but a good indication of how things will fare will be determined by the goings-on in the European debt markets, which we believe singlehandedly handicaps debt stabilization efforts and sets the tone in most markets.

Right now, the European debt markets are exhibiting signs of stability for a second day running, leading to yet another steady tone in the markets. There are reports that European banks borrowed around $489 billion Euros from the ECB at its first-ever offer of three-year loans and take-up was quite heavy, lending hope that liquidity squeezes are being addressed head-on. However, the reaction in the individual bond markets has been mixed; in this regard, although German government bond yields edged lower, Italian yields are up 20-30 basis points, with the 10-year now trading at 6.92%. This has caused most commodities to back off earlier highs with the group now mostly flat on the day. Metals are down slightly, as are oil prices. For its part, the Euro is lower now, trading at $1.3040, off from an 11-month low of $1.2945 seen earlier in the week. This is not exactly an impressive recovery, and tells us that currency investors are taking the easing moves with a grain of salt.

Moving on to China, if things are slowing down in that country, we are certainly not seeing it yet in the copper import demand numbers. Figures released by Reuters overnight show solid growth in import demand, with imports up a whopping 50% year-on-year and up 16.5% in November to just under 344,000 tons, the second-highest level on record. (See our table in our attachment). Reuters calculates that daily apparent consumption for refined copper was up almost 30% from a year earlier, and was up 7% month on month in November. There was a good month-over-month gain in aluminum as well. These numbers do not necessarily “sit well” with the overall outlook of a slowdown, so either things in China are not as bad as the macro numbers suggest, or metal (in this case copper) is being imported as a means of getting extra credit lines from the banks and is not necessarily being consumed. Whatever the case, the copper market remains unimpressed with the figures, as an earlier sprint in copper all the way to $7573 has now completely fizzled.

In other news, investment flows into commodities totaled $3.7 billion in November, Barclays Capital said, with purchases of gold by ETPs making up a majority of the inflows. “The combination in recent weeks of a broad risk rally, better US data and, perhaps most important of all, strong signals that Chinese policymakers are switching their focus to supporting growth, has helped restore some confidence,” Barclays said. For the year so far, total inflows were just over $20 billion, with most of that in the first half of the year, it said.

Very short-term, we have to favor the long side for the moment in most markets, as central bank action to flood the market with liquidity heading into tricky year-end period should keep credit markets calmer. However, easing moves are not effective solutions per se, as lending money to crippled European banks is not going to do much to solve underlying structural issues. We reckon markets will revisit this stark reality once again, likely by early next year when the holiday fog lifts and trading positions become more concentrated.
———————————-
COPPER SUPPORT: $7100 / RESISTANCE: $8015

We are now at $7405, down $5, and well off an intraday high of $7573.

* Codelco said its mines are operating normally despite contract workers staging a protest at the company’s offices in Calama, a company official told Bloomberg today.
——————————–
ALUMINUM SUPPORT: $1950 / RESISTANCE: $2170

Ali is now at $1975, down $28 and not looking that inspiring at all. Stocks were up once again overnight.

* Aluminum shipments by U.S. distributors are expected to pick up speed in the first quarter, market sources tell AMM. “I think the first quarter could have a bit of a (buying) spurt…. Now is a much better time to be buying metal than a month or two months ago,” a second distributor source said, noting that while a lot depends on Europe, he is optimistic for 2012 as long as the automotive and aerospace sectors remain steady.

* Daily average primary aluminum output in China grew to 48,900 tons in November, up from 48,100 tons in October, provisional figures from the International Aluminum Institute (IAI) showed. However, total primary aluminum production for the month fell to 1.466 million tons from 1.491 million tons in October. During the January to November period, China produced 16.285 million tons of aluminum, compared to 14.885 million tons in the first 11 months of 2010.

* Daily average primary aluminum output in November dropped to 70,700 tons compared with a revised 70,900 in October and 68,600 in November 2010, figures from the International Aluminum Institute show. Total production in November (30 days) was 2.121 million tons, compared with 2.199 million tons in October (31 days) and 2.057 million in November 2010.
————————
ZINC SUPPORT: $1820 / RESISTANCE: $2000

Zinc is at $1866, and unchanged, and off from the intraday high of $1893 hit earlier in the day.
———————————–
LEAD SUPPORT: $1900 / RESISTANCE: $2167

Lead is at $1957, down $2 and quiet.
—————————————
NICKEL SUPPORT: $17,300 / RESISTANCE: $18,900

Nickel is at $18,600, down $265 and backing off resistance apparent between $18,700-$18,900.
——————————————
TIN SUPPORT: $18,350 / RESISTANCE: $21,749

Tin is at $19,050, up $50.
——————————————-
STEEL (3-Months)

LME 3-month billets are at $535-$545, unchanged on the day.

* Capacity utilization rates at global steel mills dropped to their lowest level in two years in November, falling by 2.8% from October to 73.4%, the World Steel Association said. Meanwhile, global crude steel production saw a 1.1% increase from November 2010, to 116 million tons.

* Spot iron ore prices recovered in China this week, with offers of 61.5% Pilbara fines quoted at $132-134 per ton C&F, this according to Chinese consultancy Umetal said.

Gold gaining with equities and lower USD, with further talk of physical buying out of Asia with spot below $1,600. Soc Gen talking up buying from India and China noting that the turnover on the Shanghai Gold Exchange “has soared” to an average 11.5 tons daily from Dec. 12 vs a daily average of 6.5 tons in November. Feb has put in a few days of higher lows with RSIs creeping back into the low 30s, the 200 Day MA is next target coming in around 1621.70 ish on continuation chart. Oil higher with outside markets with front to back WTI and Brent spreads gaining. Iranian developments also aiding as US Secretary of Defense said that “despite the efforts to disrupt the Iranian nuclear program, they have reached a point where they can assemble a bomb in a year or potentially less.” US and allies will met in Rome to discuss Possible oil sanctions and Iranian official ‘condemned” UAE and Saudi Arabia for attending. Yesterday Iran reported lower production at oil fields due to lack of investment. China’s top refiner Sinopec, said they will also buy less then half of their normal crude imports from iran. API data after the close, Crude down 2.40 mil, Distillates down 400,000 and Gasoline up 1.00 mil.

From the other side of the pond, ECB president Mario Draghi said that 2012 would be a difficult year for the banks in general, as the economic outlook remains biased to the downside. Draghi also gave a rather surprisingly candid interview to the Financial Times where for the first time, he speculated openly about the possibility of a Eurozone breakup and what it might mean for individual countries. Countries that left the Euro and devalued their currency, he suggested, would not only see rising inflation, but would have to implement much-needed structural reforms on their own and without much help. Although he took great pains to emphasize that he was not foreseeing a break-up of the Euro, his views contrasted sharply with Jean-Claude Trichet who during his time in office, characterized breakup speculation as being “absurd”. We have to at least give credit to Draghi for willing to think outside the box, ominous as the ramifications of such thinking seem to be.

The bit of decent news that there was on Monday did not impact the markets much; Euro-zone finance ministers confirmed plans to contribute €150 billion in additional bilateral loans to the IMF as part of a move to boost its capital, but the U.K. wants to place its contribution within the framework of a G-20 accord and will clarify its position in this respect by January. The Bundesbank also said it was in talks with the German government over the €45 billion in loans it is contemplating making, but wants to make sure the money will not lent out by the IMF towards deficit financing.

On the more negative note, European finance ministers failed to reach agreement to boost the total lending capacity beyond the €500 billion ceiling, and also failed to make much progress on a plan to make the European Stability Mechanism more flexible by having measures pass with only an 85% majority as opposed to the current 100%.

Right now, we are seeing decent gains in metals, energy, and the Euro. European stocks are trading higher as well, setting up a firmer opening for Wall Street. The Euro is now trading at $1.3075 after briefly breaching $1,30 again today. The positive tone in the markets is attributable to the release of the German Ifo institute’s business climate index, which increased to 107.2 from 106.6 in November. (Economists had expected a drop to 106). Conditions are also thankfully quiet in the European debt markets, with Italian and Spanish yields both lower on the day. Spain also sold about 5.64 billion Euros of three-month and six- month bills in an auction that was stronger than expected. We suspect that the calmer conditions in the European credit markets we are seeing may be partly attributable to the ECB offering banks unlimited three-year loans starting today, not to mention the flood of year-end money that is also being flushed into the system in order to prevent year-end liquidity squeezes.

In US macro news, the National Association’s Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index rose to 21 in December yesterday, its highest level in a year and a half. The NAHB’s Chairman said that “While builder confidence remains low, the consistent gains registered over the past several months are an indication that pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets”. Let’s hope so. Later today, we get November housing starts and building permits data (expected at 600,000 and 625,000, respectively).

In LME news, the exchange said it will create its own clearing service called LMEClear designed to enhance the exchange’s appeal ahead of a possible sale in the coming year. In addition, the exchange will implement a new user fee of 50 pence per lot from March for members in an effort to boost profits. “The introduction of the Exchange User Fee will allow the LME to operate commercially and to provide a commercial return to its shareholders while still operating a low-cost service,” The LME’s chief executive said.

We don’t have much to add to what we have been writing in previous commentary– trading conditions both this week and next should thin out, leading to rather sharp moves in the commodities we follow. However, many off the issues that have weighed on the markets of late have not gone away and will be back in 2012 when conditions turn more normal. If there is a silver lining for the bulls in all this, it is the extraordinary degree of pessimism surrounding the Euro and the prospects for stabilizing the European debt crisis. Should the politicians indeed pull multiple rabbits out of their hats, the markets could be in for a sizable relief rally, but a lot more time needs to pass without further convulsions before investors begin to come around to such a possibility. Of course, Euro-skeptics would rather believe in Santa first.

———————————-
COPPER SUPPORT: $7100 / RESISTANCE: $8015

We are now at $7314, up $54, and not far from where we were at this time yesterday. We did get to a low of $7248 earlier in the Shanghai session, but have since bounced higher in line with the recovery in the Euro. The $7100 area remains key support.

* Striking workers at Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Indonesian mine delayed until next week a plan to go back to work after a three-month strike because of technical and scheduling issues, a union spokesman told Reuters.

* Benchmark copper treatment and refining charges for 2012 have been more or less set after Aurubis agreed to a price of $63.5/6.35 per lb, following a similar deal by Freeport-McMoran with Jiangxi Copper last month, an industry source tells Reuters.

——————————–
ALUMINUM SUPPORT: $1950 / RESISTANCE: $2170

Ali is now at $1985, up $23. For the moment, support at $1950 seems to be holding, but the technicals still look quite negative. We expect to see announcements of more production cuts if prices continue to languish at these levels.

———————————–
ZINC SUPPORT: $1820 / RESISTANCE: $2000

Zinc is at $1853, up $15, and about where we were at this time yesterday. The $1800 level marks the lower end of the trading range and must hold in order to prevent a break to the October lows.

———————————–
LEAD SUPPORT: $1900 / RESISTANCE: $2167

Lead is at $1955, up $17 and quiet, with less than a $40 trading range in place. Charts suggest that the next downside target is $1900.

—————————————
NICKEL SUPPORT: $17,300 / RESISTANCE: $18,900

Nickel is at $18,557, up $177, and approaching resistance between $18,700-$18,900.

* The $1.5 billion Ramu nickel project, which is China’s single-largest mining investment in Papua New Guinea, should be operating close to capacity by mid- to late-2013, Australian minority partner Highlands Pacific told Reuters on Tuesday. The project is expected to yield 31,150 tons of nickel and 3,300 tons of cobalt a year for at least 20 years, but continues to face opposition in the courts.

——————————————
TIN SUPPORT: $18,350 / RESISTANCE: $21,749

Tin is at $18,825, up $130.

——————————————-
STEEL (3-Months)

LME 3-month billets are at $535-$545.

INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.

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All markets – Regular Close

KCBOT http://www.kcbt.com/ NYSE http://www.nyse.com
Wheat Futures – Regular Close All markets – Regular Close
Wheat Options – Regular Close
MGEX http://www.mgex.com/
All Markets – Regular Close

**Overnight and Electronic U.S. Markets**

CME GLOBEX http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/files/2010-christmas.pdf
Thurs. December 23rd All markets – Regular Hours

Fri. December 24th Closed

Sun. December 26th Regular CME Globex open for trade date Monday, Dec 27th
Regular CME Globex open for CBOT, KCBT and MGEX Grains for trade date Monday, Dec 27
Exceptions: CME Livestock, Lumber, TRAKRS and ETFs will remain closed until their regularly scheduled open on Monday Dec 27

Mon. December 27th All markets – Regular Hours

NYMEX & COMEX http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar/files/2010-christmas.pdf
Thurs. December 23rd Regular CME Globex close for trade date Thursday, Dec 23rd
Exception: Silver TAS contracts will close at 11:25am
Gold TAS Contracts will close at 11:30am
Energy TAS contracts will close at 12:30pm

Fri. December 24th Closed

Sun. December 26th Regular CME Globex open for trade date Monday, Dec 27th

ICE FUTURES/U.S. https://www.theice.com/marketdata/calendar/CalendarList.shtml

Thurs. December 23rd Agricultural Products – Regular Hours
Equity Index Products – Early Close at 3:15pm
Financial Products – Early Close at 4:00pm

Fri. December 24th Closed

Mon. December 27th Agricultural Products – Regular Hours
Sugar 11, Cocoa, Coffee C and Cotton No. 2: 6:30 am CST open;
FCOJ and Sugar 16: Regular Hours
Equity Index Products – Regular Hours
Financial Products – Regular Hours

NYSE Liffe U.S. http://www.nyse.com/pdfs/30-2010.pdf

Thurs. December 23rd Metals – Regular Hours
MSCI – Regular Hours

Fri. December 24th Closed

Mon. December 27th Metals – Regular Hours
MSCI – Regular Hours

**Overnight and Electronic Non U.S. Markets**

ICE Europe \https://www.theice.com/marketdata/calendar/CalendarList.shtml

Thurs. December 23rd Oil and Refined Markets – Regular Hours
Utility and Coal Markets – Regular Hours
Emissions Markets – Regular Hours

Fri. December 24th Oil and Refined Markets – Early Close at 7:00 am
Utility and Coal Markets – Early Close at 7:00 am
Emissions Markets – Early Close at 6:00 am

Mon. December 27th Oil and Refined Markets – Regular Hours
Utility and Coal Markets – Closed
Emissions Markets – Closed

Tues. December 28th Oil and Refined Markets – Regular Hours
Utility and Coal Markets – Closed
Emissions Markets – Closed

ICE Canada \https://www.theice.com/marketdata/calendar/CalendarList.shtml

Thurs. December 23rd Regular Hours

Fri. December 24th Closed

Mon. December 27th Closed

Tues. December 28th Regular Hours

NYSE LIFFE http://www.euronext.com/fic/000/060/800/608001.pdf

Fri. December 24th Euribor Futures and Options close at 6:25am Central time
Short Sterling and Swapnote contracts close at 6:20am Central time
Euroswiss contracts close at 6:15am Central time
Short, Medium and Long Gilt close at 6:15am Central time
FTSE 100 futures close at 6:30am Central time
All London-based commodity contracts close at 6:18am Central time
Milling Wheat, CAC 40 and AEX futures close at 7:00am Central time

Mon. and Tues. December 27th and 28th

Euribor contracts close at 12:00pm Central time
Sterling-based products and UK-based commodities will be closed
Milling Wheat, CAC 40 and AEX futures will have normal trading hours

**RCG Main Office Hours**

Treasury
Thurs. December 23rd Regular Hours
Fri. December 24th Closed
Mon. December 27th Regular Hours

Customer Service
Thurs. December 23rd Regular Hours
Fri. December 24th Closed
Mon. December 27th Regular Hours

Execution Services
Thurs. December 23rd Regular Hours
Fri. December 24th 10:00am CST
Mon. December 27th Regular Hours

Balancing
Thurs. December 23rd Regular Hours
Fri. December 24th Closed
Mon. December 27th Regular Hours

All other departments
Thurs. December 23rd Regular Hours
Fri. December 24th Closed
Mon. December 27th Regular Hours

FAIRFIELD, Iowa, December 14, 2010– Managed futures lost 1.08% in November according to the Barclay CTA Index compiled by BarclayHedge. The Index remains up 3.77% for the year.

“As concern mounted regarding the possibility of inflation in China, war in Korea, and the dissolution of the Euro, investors decreased their risk exposures,” says Sol Waksman, founder and president of BarclayHedge.

Seven of Barclay’s eight CTA indices lost ground in November. The Barclay Agricultural Traders Index was down 1.87%, Financial & Metals Traders lost 1.56%, Diversified Traders were down 1.53%, and Systematic Traders slid 1.13%.

“Price declines in global equities, long bonds, base metals, grains, and the Euro caught investors off balance and led to losses,” says Waksman.

The Barclay Currency Traders Index held its ground with a 0.08% gain in November.

“Traders able to reverse Euro exposure during the month kept losses to a minimum, while more nimble players made some money,” says Waksman.

The Barclay BTOP50 Index, which monitors performance of the largest traders, fell 2.09% in November, nearly double the loss of the Barclay CTA Index. The BTOP50 is still up 4.21% year-to-date.

Click here to view 30 years of Barclay CTA Index data.

Sol Waksman is an experienced media source, providing perspectives on hedge fund and managed futures trends. For more commentary or background, call 641-472-3456 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting 641-472-3456 end_of_the_skype_highlighting or email swaksman@barclayhedge.com.

BarclayHedge was founded in 1985 and actively tracks more than 5,900 hedge funds, funds of hedge funds, and managed futures programs. Each month Barclay provides updated performance rankings for 38 Hedge Fund categories and 16 CTA categories.

Institutional investors, brokerage firms and private banks worldwide utilize Barclay’s data as performance benchmarks for the hedge fund and managed futures industries.

All times Eastern

Europe / Africa
24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan
EUREX closed regular regular closed regular
CAC close @ 8:00 am regular regular close @ 8:00 am regular
S&P MIB closed regular regular regular regular
FTSE 100 close @ 8:00 am closed closed close @ 8:00 am closed
LME Pit close @ 9:00 am closed closed close @ 9:00 am closed
LME Electronic close @ 11:00 am closed closed close @ 11:00 am closed
AEX close @ 8:00 am regular regular close @ 8:00 am regular
OMX closed regular regular closed regular
BEL20 close @ 8:00 am regular regular close @ 8:00 am regular
ASE20 closed regular regular close @ 8:20 am regular
IBEX closed regular regular closed regular
ATX closed regular regular closed regular
SAFEX AGRI close @ 4:00 am closed regular close @ 4:00 am regular
SAFEX ALL SHARES close @ 5:00 am regular regular close @ 5:00 am regular
ICE/IPE close @ 8:00 am regular regular close @ 3:00 pm regular
* Eurex is closed for trading and exercise in Norwegian equity derivatives.

USA

CBOT 24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan
Agriculturals Pit closed regular regular close at 1:00 pm regular
Dow Jones Pit closed regular regular regular regular
Dow Jones Elec closed regular regular regular regular

CBOE 24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan
Stocks closed regular regular regular regular
Index closed regular regular regular regular

NYMEX 24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan
Pit closed regular regular regular regular
Electronic closed regular regular regular regular

COMEX 24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan
Pit closed regular regular regular regular
Electronic closed regular regular regular regular

ICE US/NYBOT 24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan
Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa closed regular regular regular closed
OJ, Cotton closed regular regular regular regular
Dollar Index closed regular regular close @ 1:15 pm regular
Equity Index closed regular regular close @ 4:15 pm regular

CME / IMM 24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan
Commodity Pit closed regular regular regular regular
Commodity Elec closed regular regular regular regular
Foreign Exchange Pit closed regular regular close @ 1:00 pm regular
Foreign Exchange Elec closed regular regular close @ 1:15 pm regular
Interest Rates Pit closed regular regular close @ 1:00 pm regular
Interest Rates Elec closed regular regular close @ 1:15 pm regular
Equities Pit closed regular regular regular regular
Equities Elec closed regular regular regular regular
GSCI Pit closed regular regular close @ 1:00 pm regular
GSCI Pit closed regular regular regular regular

Canada

Montreal 24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan
BAX close @ 1:00 pm closed closed close @ 1:00 pm closed
CGB close @ 1:00 pm closed closed close @ 1:00 pm closed
S&P T-60 close @ 1:00 pm closed closed regular closed

Asia
24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 31-Dec 1-Jan 2-Jan 3-Jan
SIMEX NIKKEI closed regular regular closed regular
OSAKA NIKKEI regular regular regular closed closed
SIMEX JGB closed regular regular closed regular
TSE JGB regular regular regular closed closed
HKXE regular closed regular regular regular

!! All times are subject to change – check with the exchanges !!

More than three-quarters of the hedge funds and institutional investors polled by Barclays Capital said that direct commodity investments

would increase next year from the $50 billion seen this year. And more than half say they have already increased their commodity exposure this year.

Over the next three years, the outlook is even brighter, with 91% of the managers expecting to begin, maintain or increase their commodity investing.

Some 40% of the 300 respondents were hedge fund managers.

Copper is expected to be the biggest winner, with grain and crude in its wake. Sugar, diesel, steel and natural gas, by contrast, attracted fewer supporters.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/241173-hedge-funds-ready-to-pile-into-commodities

(authored by):

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